Practically everybody entering trading arena has one objective- to make money. While there are some people who trade for challenge or other “purist” reasons, they are decisive minority. For almost all traders, pulling money out of the markets is a primary motivation.
We have all seen TV infomercials that make it sound so easy. What you need to do is to attend some seminar, purchase a piece of software with some crossing lines or colorful arrows. Just follow these buy and sell signals and you are on your way to untold reaches. Can it really be that simple?
Reality is quite different. There are statistics claiming that 90-95% of traders lose money. How accurate this number is, may be debatable, but what is not, is the fact that more people lose money than make it. These kind of statements often stress they apply to small speculators or beginner traders. This could be understandable. Most people get themselves into trading in a haphazard way. They don't commit enough time to education, follow questionable advice, luck discipline, are insufficiently funded. The list can go on.
Then there are professional traders. Money managers, hedge funds, bank traders, CTA's. How well do they do trading Forex? Logic would dictate this group of traders makes a lot of money. After all they employ best talent, have best market access, use sophisticated trading tools, have best trading terms, certainly are not under capitalized. In other words, these market participants are best positioned for consistent profitability. Strangely enough, that doesn't guarantee superior results.
Barclay, well known financial powerhouse, compiles Barclay's Currency Trader Index (CTI). Data for this index comprises of results from 114 managed money programs, both spot Forex and currency futures. Since 2000 there was only one year when this index gained more than 10%- 11.08% in 2003. Index suggests that money managers as a group have been losing money for last few years. In 2005 results were -1.21%, 2006 witnessed a loss of -0.12%. Returns for 2007 to date are not much more impressive, just 0.89% gain through August. The outlook for the rest of the year is no better. Other indexes tracking currency trading funds show similar results- marginal gains at best.
These results maybe shocking to many people. If the best positioned market participants can't achieve meaningful returns, is it possible at all to extract profits from Forex trading? What chance does a small speculator have if large players don't seem to get anywhere?
Well, smaller traders do have some advantages over large institutions. While every trader should create and stick to his trading plan, he/she is not bound by myriad of rules and limitations that institutional trader must adhere to. For one, leverage. Money managers are not allowed to use large leverage. They may be limited to how big percentage of total funds can put in any one market. Individual trader is not. Most importantly, perhaps, money management companies can not just cash out 100% and sit on the sidelines when things don't go right. Individuals have this luxury, which, at times, maybe the smartest thing to do.
With proper market education and solid trading plan, every market participant can be successful. Outside of extremely short term scalping, where institutions have an edge in cost of trading, disciplined and patient individual can be the one who makes money. On regular basis.
Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Forex Strategist for Spectrum Forex LLC. He specializes in mechanical trading systems as explained on http://www.spectrumforex.com . Spectrum Forex LLC offers numerous services to individual traders. With questions and comments e-mail him at kulej@spectrumforex.com
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